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This chapter presents a number time-series methods: naive, smoothing, decomposition, regression, and percent sales forecasting.  Fully worked out examples of each are provided.

 

Introduction

Case Study: Apple

Naïve Methods: Last-Year Constant

Naïve Methods: Last-Year Rate of Change

Smoothing Method: Moving Averages

Smoothing Method: Moving Average with Weighting of Observations

Smoothing Method: Exponential Smoothing

Seasonality Method: Forecasting Seasonality in Time Series Data

Regression Methods: Dummy Variable Regression for Seasonal Data

Regression and Prediction Intervals

Projection Method: Percent of Sales

Summary

Appendix 1: Apple Inc. Annual Revenue in $ Billions, 1977–2020

Appendix 2: Apple Inc. Quarterly Annual Revenue in $ Billions, 2012–2020

Appendix 3: Time Series Decomposition Data

Section VI: Prescriptive Analytics Overview

What Counts - Chapter 16 - Forecasting

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