This chapter presents a number time-series methods: naive, smoothing, decomposition, regression, and percent sales forecasting. Fully worked out examples of each are provided.
| Introduction |
| Case Study: Apple |
| Naïve Methods: Last-Year Constant |
| Naïve Methods: Last-Year Rate of Change |
| Smoothing Method: Moving Averages |
| Smoothing Method: Moving Average with Weighting of Observations |
| Smoothing Method: Exponential Smoothing |
| Seasonality Method: Forecasting Seasonality in Time Series Data |
| Regression Methods: Dummy Variable Regression for Seasonal Data |
| Regression and Prediction Intervals |
| Projection Method: Percent of Sales |
| Summary |
| Appendix 1: Apple Inc. Annual Revenue in $ Billions, 1977–2020 |
| Appendix 2: Apple Inc. Quarterly Annual Revenue in $ Billions, 2012–2020 |
| Appendix 3: Time Series Decomposition Data |
| Section VI: Prescriptive Analytics Overview |
What Counts - Chapter 16 - Forecasting
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